Chrees' world

Friday, July 28, 2006

The bubble has burst (updated)

Once there was a market for something that increased in value monthly. Monthly publications were followed religiously to track returns. Secondary outlets sprung up to faciliate the marketing and buying of this product, and people thought their investment would undoubtedly increase in value over time. Housing? No, something worse for those hoping their retirement would come from betting on rookies--baseball cards.

The article by Dave Jamieson in Slate reinforces what little bit I've seen in the market--oversaturation and narrower marketing have killed much of the value in the market for baseball cards. So I've got anecdotal evidence, but how about hard numbers? That I'll have to dig a little harder for, but hope to follow up soon.

I invested in baseball cards in the late '80s when I was a hardcore baseball fan, then sold them all when I realized I was no longer enjoying collecting. I had promised my wife I would quit collecting when it became a chore, and I made good on that. Then with the strike year and several other personal factors, I no longer cared very much for baseball and haven't kept up with it or the card market. Here's from the article. The Simpson's Comic Book Guy even makes an appearance:

Baseball cards peaked in popularity in the early 1990s. They've taken a long slide into irrelevance ever since, last year logging less than a quarter of the sales they did in 1991. Baseball card shops, once roughly 10,000 strong in the United States, have dwindled to about 1,700. A lot of dealers who didn't get out of the game took a beating. "They all put product in their basement and thought it was gonna turn into gold," Alan Rosen, the dealer with the self-bestowed moniker "Mr. Mint," told me.

Update: I didn't see this CNNMoney.com article until after I had posted. It backs up much of what was in the Slate article, as well as giving specific information like

Take Cal Ripken Jr.'s 1982 Topps rookie card. In 1996, the year after Ripken broke Lou Gehrig's record for number of most consecutive games played, a card in mint condition that had not been professionally appraised would have sold for $90. But with Ripken's achievement faded from the minds of collectors, that same ungraded card would only fetch $40 today.

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